Guy Carpenter launches probabilistic flood model for Vietnam

Guy Carpenter has launched a new Vietnam flood model, the latest in a series of proprietary models for the region that also includes Thailand, Malaysia, the Philippines and Indonesia.

The fully probabilistic model provides countrywide coverage and enables insurers to assess their exposure to floods, which affect 70% of the country’s population.

The Guy Carpenter Vietnam Flood Model is based on a 10,000-year stochastic catalogue simulating both fluvial (riverine) and pluvial (rainfall) flooding.

The fluvial component of the hazard was developed using state-of-the-art hydrological and hydraulic modelling to simulate rainfall and river discharges across the river network in the country.

Pluvial flooding is simulated using a proprietary, in-house methodology accounting for local climate conditions, soil type, land use, and topography.

Offering enhanced flexibility, the Vietnam model can produce event-loss tables, occurrence exceedance probability curves, and average annual losses at virtually any level of aggregation.

The model outputs can be leveraged using Guy Carpenter’s MetaRisk platform to analyse reinsurance structures and for capital modelling.

“The population of Vietnam is particularly exposed to flood,” said Tony Gallagher, CEO of Guy Carpenter’s Asia-Pacific region.

“The Red River delta in the north of the country is very heavily populated and includes extensive industrial areas and the capital city Ha Noi. The Mekong delta in the south, which also has a large population, is very important for agriculture.”

“Additionally, the country is subject to both typhoon and monsoon.  These factors combine to create a challenging situation and our Vietnam Flood Model is helping to address these risks. Guy Carpenter is dedicated to working with our clients to help them understand and manage their exposure to natural perils.”

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