The recent devastating floods in Germany could result in insured losses of some EUR 5 billion, according to risk modelling firm AIR Worldwide.
Included in AIR’s estimates are losses to insured physical damage to property (residential, commercial, industrial, auto, agriculture), both structures and their contents, from both on- and off-floodplain flooding.
Other countries and regions that experienced flooding include Belgium, Switzerland, Austria, Luxembourg, and the Netherlands’ southernmost province Limburg, but these regions are not included in AIR’s loss estimate.
Low pressure system “Bernd” parked itself over central Europe and brought about significant flooding from July 13 to 18. Germany’s Rhineland-Palatinate and North Rhine-Westphalia regions were particularly affected, experiencing heavy and, in some cases, historic rainfall amounts, with the border region between the German states of Bavaria, Thuringia, and Saxony being affected by localized flooding as well.
Impacted German rivers with notable gauge readings include the tributaries of the Mosel and Rhine rivers, some of which reached historically high levels.
One area that was especially hard hit is the Ahr valley, which is named after the Ahr River, a left tributary of the Rhine River in Germany. All along the Ahr River, homes were flooded and bridges were broken; in the village of Schuld most buildings were destroyed.
Also heavily affected were the mountainous areas in the border region between the southeasternmost region of Germany and the Austrian states of Salzburg and Tirol. Affected communities include Hallein, Kufstein, and various communities in the region of Berchtesgaden. Communities in the German state of Saxony were also affected—especially in the mountain range Saxon Switzerland.
AIR Worldwide noted that the restoration of infrastructure such as water and gas pipes, power lines, and roads could take weeks or even months, according to some estimates, which could lead to loss inflation effects.
To produce the loss estimates, AIR analysed hourly precipitation fields over Germany derived from NASA’s Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) system during July 5 to 19.
Daily observed rainfall data from over 1,600 gauging stations, obtained from the Climate Data Center at Deutsche Wetterdienst (DWD), was also assimilated to improve the quality of the GPM precipitation input. As the vast majority of losses for this event within Germany came from the catchments of the Rhine and Danube basins, the loss estimate is limited to these two river basins within Germany.
River flow data from more than 900 gauging stations in the Rhine and Danube river basins within Germany, obtained from country’s provincial and federal agencies, was used to calibrate and validate the modelled flows.
AIR noted that many reinsurance contracts are subject to an hours clause (typically 504 hours for flood events). Given the duration of this event, AIR expects the flood to be treated as a single occurrence in Germany.